📊 Market Update: Navigating the Chaos

📅 Key Data Releases: This week & Next

🔹 Wednesday, March 12th - Inflation Data (CPI Report)

• Last month’s inflation came in hot.

• The market expects this print to be slightly softer, but any upside surprise could trigger further risk-off sentiment.

🔹 Friday, March 14th - Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations

• Consumer Sentiment was strong last month, despite macro uncertainty.

• Inflation Expectations spiked to 4.3% (vs. 3.3% expected)—this month’s print is projected at 4.4%.

🔹 Wednesday, March 19th - Federal Reserve Meeting (FOMC Decision)

• No rate cut expected, and Powell will likely remain non-committal on future cuts.

• Market expectations have shifted: Now pricing in 3.1 rate cuts this year, up from 1.5 cuts just a month ago—and possibly rising to 4 cuts if data weakens.

• My expectation: The first rate cut happens in June or July if growth data continues deteriorating.

📉 Market Performance: Sharp Sell-Off Across Risk Assets

The last two weeks have been brutal across markets:

• BTC: 7 Days: -16.45% | 14 Days: -19.80%

• S&P 500 (SPX): 7 Days: -5.9% | 14 Days: -8.4%

• Nasdaq (NDX): 7 Days: -7.4% | 14 Days: -12.4%

This sell-off has been extreme:

• BTC is now the most oversold since August 2023.

• SPX is at its most oversold level since October 2023.

• NDX is at its worst since January 2022.

The major factor? Policy uncertainty. The Trump administration has made it clear that there’s no “Trump Put”—they won’t intervene just because markets are dropping. Instead, they want lower bond yields to allow Powell to cut rates later in the year.

🔹 Macro Risk: Potential Short-Term Relief, But Bigger Concerns Loom

A short-term relief rally is possible if Wednesday’s CPI print comes in soft—but this isn’t the market’s real issue.

• The bigger issue?

• Uncertainty around tariffs and trade policies, which is accelerating economic slowdown.

• U.S. liquidity conditions are tight, while capital is flowing to Europe.

• Growth is slowing rapidly, and the market is now pricing in more aggressive rate cuts.

If rate cuts happen due to recession fears, risk assets may sell off before rebounding.

Right now, Bond Spreads don’t indicate a full recession, but they show serious growth fears. We are monitoring closely.

🔹 Key Levels & ETF Flows to Watch

With reciprocal tariffs coming in early April, we expect more market turbulence.

🔹 ETF Flows:

• First sign of a BTC bottom: ETF outflows slow or stop—right now, outflows remain heavy, but selling has slightly decreased.

🔹 Short-Term Holder Realized Price (Key BTC Level)

• Current Short-Term Holder Realized Price: $91,700

• Historically, BTC finds support at -0.8 to -1.2 standard deviations below its cost basis.

• Value areas sit between the late $60Ks to mid-$70Ks.

🔹 Deep Value Zone (Potential BTC Bottom Levels)

• Bitcoin’s Electrical Cost: $56,900—the estimated break-even cost for efficient miners.

• We don’t expect BTC to drop this low, but if BTC touches $50K levels, it’s a screaming buy.

• Low $60Ks is a strong long-term accumulation zone.

• $70K-$78K is a buy zone, but scaling in slowly is the best approach.

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We’re in one of the most chaotic market environments since COVID. But for those who de-risked early, this correction presents a massive opportunity.

🔹 Two key factors dictate our moves:

• Price action (How far do we drop?)

• Macro timeline (When do we get policy clarity?)

At some point—likely in the next month or two—prices may drop so low that it’s time to “close your eyes” and buy.

^{Be greedy when others are fearful, but scale in—don’t go all-in at once.}

🔹 The Setup for H2 2025: Why This Could Be a Massive Buying Opportunity

Despite the short-term pain, the back half of 2025 is setting up for a huge opportunity.

Here’s why:

1️⃣ Rate cuts are coming—likely at least 3 this year.

2️⃣ Tariffs may ease after trade deals.

3️⃣ Other countries (especially China) could stimulate their economies.

What does this mean for crypto?

• If BTC drops to $70K, and SOL hits $100, those could 2x-3x by year-end.

• Meme coins & high-beta alts could explode even further once liquidity returns.

This is the time to be looking past short-term fear. Lower prices now = massive buying opportunity.

🔹 Final Take:

Don’t get caught up in today’s fear—this is where long-term wealth is built. Markets are tough now, but 2025 is setting up to be huge for those who position correctly.